Prediction Of Climate Change Of The 21st Century | 18501
ISSN: 2157-7617

Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
Open Access

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Prediction of climate change of the 21st century

3rd International Conference on Earth Science & Climate Change

Shigenori Maruyama

ScientificTracks Abstracts: J Earth Sci Clim Change

DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.S1.013

IPCC (4th) had predicted global temperature would increase drastically up to 2-6 K in the coming century. However, such an increase has not been observed since 2000. Another prediction (IPCC 5th) was published in 2013, which modified the previous prediction by a much slower curve and sharper increase after 2050. The prediction through the Global Cooling Model (GCM) depends on the change in atmospheric CO 2 during the past 1000 years. Our group has examined the radiative forcing by the level of atmospheric CO 2 from zero to 800 ppm, and the result showed it increased the temperature up to only 0.6K even in the case of 800 ppm. Also, the climate change of the 21 st century based on the relationship among galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) ( ⊿ 14C), sunspot number, and global temperature (δ14 C and sea-level change). The result indicated the temperature would decrease gradually since 2000. Application of the GCM to the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth (total solar irradiation (TSI) was 94% of present-day; atmospheric CO 2 was 20-50 times) and Paleoproterozoic Snowball Earth (TSI was 85%, and the level of CO 2 was 100-1000 times) has been done by USA, France, and Germany, however, all failed to reconstruct the Snowball state. One possible scenario to reproduce Snowball Earth is to include GCRs-induced cloud in the GCM which was ca. 10 times more than the present-day Earth. Strong positive feedback of XCO 2 through the GCM, possibly reaching to ten times than sole radiative forcing might be overestimated
Shigenori Maruyama completed his PhD in Geology at the age of 29 years from Nagoya University of Japan, held positions at Toyama University, University of Tokyo, and the School of Earth Science, Stanford University as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow. He is a professor at the Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan, having published more than 330 papers in reputed journals.