Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
Open Access

Abstract

T his study aims to investigate the impact of climatic change on the flood occurrence using Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) in Bakhtiari Basin. It is based on the simulation of temperature as well as precipitation data for 2011-2030 time period using CGCM3 and A2 diffusion scenario. Doing this requires the application of down scaling method based on proportionate precipitation method and subtraction procedure pertains to maximum and minimum temperature. In order to simulate the floods of the basin, Hydrological Engineering Center- Hydrological Model System (HEC-HMS) were applied. This study suggests a decrease in discharge up to 357.7 m� comparing to the observed one in April 2000 happened in the study area. However, this figure is related to %6.1 error. This paper further suggests a decrease in precipitation as well as increase in maximum and minimum temperature in the study period. In effect, there exists 20 percent decrease in precipitation as well as 1.5 and 1 degree increase in maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Despite of decrease in precipitation level of study period, there exist extreme precipitations compared to the based study period (1989-2010). This in turn, indicates an increase in the flood occurrence for the study period which invites the precautionary measures regarding the basin

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