The Role Of Changing Climate And Biogeography In Northern Eurasia In The Dynamics Of Land Cover And Land Use And Carbon Cycling At The Global Scale During The 21st Century | 2441
Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
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In recent decades, the largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in northern
Eurasia. This temperature increase and extreme climate change are projected to continue during the 21st century according
to climate models. The changing climate is likely to affect land cover and the biogeochemical cycles in the region. These changes
in biogeography and biogeochemistry, in turn, will affect how land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and
adapt to future climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy.
Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. Using a suite
of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models, we explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in
Northern Eurasia influences land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, by the
end of the 21st century, the vegetation shift due to climate is a more important factor than the climate itself in driving land use
change in Northern Eurasia. While climate policy appears to have little influence on the cumulative release of about 20 Pg C from
Northern Eurasia over the 21st century, the redistribution of global land use causes the global terrestrial biosphere to sequester
less carbon (43 Pg C) with implementation of a climate policy than without a policy (65 Pg C). The vegetation shift in Northern
Eurasia induced from changing climate and demands of global economic growth significantly affect both regional and global land
use and decreases carbon sink activities at both regional and global scales.
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