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Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Combined With Hydrodynamic Modelling To Estimate The Public Health Risk Associated With Bathing After Rainfall Events | 41444
ISSN: 2161-0711
Journal of Community Medicine & Health Education
Open Access
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Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events
This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches,
Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk
Assessment (QMRA) framework. Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic
model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens
(norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous
studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after
a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the
public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days
after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic
reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big
beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential
of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public
health risk and support beach management decisions.