Journal of Marine Science: Research & Development
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Nile River is the source of more than 97% of the Egypt fresh water. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile will eliminate the Egyptian water resources specially during dam filling period as well
as increase the probability of flooding in case of dam collapse. The potentiality effect of that in the stability and efficiency of
Rosetta promontory (the terminal of the Nile River with the Mediterranean Sea) is investigated by using the Coastal Modeling
System (CMS). Field data of wave, wind, tide, sediment characteristics and bed morphology are used to construct and calibrate
the model. The developed model scenarios contain the reduction in water discharge to the sea in increments of 25% from 25
to 100% corresponding to the Dam filling period from 6 to 2years. The other scenarios allow maximum discharge through the
Nile branch continuously for two months to represent the case of GERD destruction.
The first four scenarios show a limited effect on promontory stability and efficiency compared to the recent condition.
That is due to the very limited actual water discharge through the promontory due to the water scarcity in Egypt and the water
resource multi usage strategy applied by the Egyptian government. On the other hand, the flooding scenarios show increase
in the inlet cross section leading to a relatively large local scour especially in front of the western bank protection work which
threat the structure stability. Moreover, the sedimentation spit inside the inlet will be relocated in front of the exit which affects
the efficiency of the navigation channel. In addition, the wave height, energy, run up and overtopping increase dramatically
and cause flooding in the cultivated low land around the promontory especially behind the eastern side. These side effects can
be eliminated by reinforcing the side bank protection work in a limited zone and by saving the minimum promontory flood
cross section of 1750 m2.
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